The weather in the current growing season has not been ideal for field crops in all areas. Germination of grain crops was hampered by the colder and drier than average weather conditions in May. The cool weather continued into June, but the drought was replaced by copious rains. The first two weeks of July have also continued with the rainy and cool weather.

The yields of field crops per hectare are forecast to fall well short of last year's levels. Due to the removal of compulsory fallowing, over 100,000 more hectares were under grain crops than in summer 2007. Despite this, the total grain harvest would appear to fall short of last year's.

Rye and wheat harvests smaller than the previous year

The rye harvest per hectare would seem to be smaller than last summer's, but clearly greater than the average calculated over ten years. Due to the decline in cultivated area, the rye harvest is likely to be almost a third lower this year than last, or about 60 million kilos.

The forecast indicates clearly lower harvests for both winter and spring wheat per hectare than those of summer 2007. The wheat harvest forecast is about 730 million kilos, which is almost 10% less than last year.

Oats and barley harvests on par with last year's

The harvest per hectare for oats is forecast to fall short of last year's level, but due to increased cultivation area, the total oats harvest may be equal to that of last autumn, i.e. 1.2 billion kilos.

Like for oats, the yield per hectare for barley will also be lower than last year, but due to increased cultivation area, the total harvest will be of similar size to that of last year. The total barley harvest is estimated at 1.9 billion kilos.

Rape yield lower than last year

The rape yield per hectare is forecast at 200 kilos per hectare higher than last year, but due to the one-third reduction in cultivated area, the total rape harvest may end up about 20% short of last year's.

Sugar beet harvest continues to decline

The reduction in the area under sugar beet and the lower forecast yield per hectare than last year's reduce the estimated sugar beet harvest to about 460 million kilos. If the forecast is accurate, the drop last year's harvest would be more than 30%.

The harvest estimates are based on estimates from their own areas supplied by experts at ProAgria Rural Advisory Centres, reflecting the situation as on 15 July. The estimates for each municipality are based on visual observations and knowledge of local conditions. The cultivated areas for the different crops are based on information supplied by farmers on their subsidy applications, almost all of which had been entered by 22 July 2008. The next harvest estimate, describing the situation as on 25 August, will be published in early September.

Additional information
Actuary Jaana Kyyrä, tel. +358 (0)20 77 21292 (until 31 July)
Researcher Mirva Kokkinen, tel. +358 (0)20 77 21371
All email addresses are formed: firstname.lastname@mmmtike.fi